news

Harnessing Applied Mathematics and Bayesian Statistics to Protect Forests from Invasive Moths

Patrick Mccreery — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 18:24:16 +0000

Harnessing Applied Mathematics and Bayesian Statistics to Protect Forests from Invasive Moths Patrick Mccreery Tue, 10/07/2025 - 12:24 Patrick McCreery

How APPM researchers, like Professor Vanja Dukic, are aiding in the ecological battle against forest defoliators

Invasive species are among the leading threats to forests across North America. Among them, the spongy moth and Douglas-fir tussock moth are responsible for extensive damage to forests from coast to coast. However, cutting-edge mathematical and statistical modeling is able to aid forest managers fight outbreaks with precision.

Spongy Moths: Predicting Outbreaks, Protecting Forests

Over the past five decades, outbreaks of the invasive spongy moth have led to the defoliation of millions of acres of oak forests across the eastern United States and the Midwest. These events not only destroy forest ecosystems, but also result in significant economic and real estate losses, particularly as nearly 70% of these forests are privately owned.

A highly specific baculovirus offers a solution: harmless to other species, this virus can suppress spongy moth populations effectively. Using mathematical and statistical models developed by researchers at the University of Chicago and CU Boulder, such as APPM Professor Vanja Dukic, targeted biocontrol applications of this virus can now be planned with precision (see Figure 1). By identifying when and where to intervene, these models help forest managers minimize damage and, in some cases, prevent outbreaks altogether.

Figure 1. Map of spongy moth defoliation in the USA and Ontario, Canada, from 1975 - 2019. Purple shading shows areas that have experienced 1 or more defoliation events. Ontario data are only available beginning in 1996.

Douglas-Fir Tussock Moths: Advanced Forecasting for Smart Interventions

In the western US, Douglas-fir tussock moths pose a similar threat. These caterpillars feed on the needles of fir trees and have recently caused severe defoliation events, including major outbreaks in New Mexico. Like the spongy moth, the tussock moth has a species-specific baculovirus that can naturally regulate its population.

In collaboration with the USDA Forest Service and the University of Chicago, APPM researchers developed and applied a sophisticated epidemiological model to recent outbreaks. This model incorporates key variables—moth population size, initial viral presence, and transmission rates—to forecast the dynamics of a baculovirus epizootic. From 2018 to 2020, the model guided intervention strategies in several national forests, including the Boise, Okanogan-Wenatchee, and Lolo forests. The outcomes validated the model’s predictive power and its utility in biocontrol planning.

A Cross-Institutional Effort

This work exemplifies the impact of applied mathematics in addressing real-world ecological challenges. The joint effort between CU Boulder, the University of Chicago, and the U.S. Forest Service demonstrates how mathematical and statistical insight can drive practical, data-informed decision-making in forest management.

As these models continue to evolve, they offer a blueprint for how mathematical sciences can help preserve our forests—ensuring that forests and biodiversity are protected for generations to come.

Figure 2. Model projections of Douglas Fir Tussock moth outbreaks in the western US.

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MSAM Spring 2026 Prospective Student Information Session

Joshua Jeng — Thu, 25 Sep 2025 19:10:32 +0000

MSAM Spring 2026 Prospective Student Information Session Joshua Jeng Thu, 09/25/2025 - 13:10

CU Boulder’s graduate program in Applied Mathematics is consistently ranked in the top 15 programs in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Our Master’s degree program offers students the opportunity to specialize in statistics and data science, or a customized track of their choice. Join an innovative program combining real world collaboration with rigorous coursework, taught by renowned faculty in the field.

This information session for the Master's degree in Applied Mathematics will be run by the Program Director and is suited for prospective students. The deadline to apply for a Spring 2026 semester start is October 1, 2025.

More information can be found at /amath/academics/ms-applied-mathematics

Event Date: 09/25/2025

Registration Link: https://grad.apply.colorado.edu/register/?id=f8c40079-7cf6-4233-bdee-1764b5be91ce

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The Weak Form is Stronger Than You Think

Anonymous — Fri, 25 Oct 2024 17:54:50 +0000

The Weak Form is Stronger Than You Think Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 10/25/2024 - 11:54

This month, Los Alamos Director's postdoc (and former APPM PhD student) Daniel Messenger, Applied Mathematics graduate student April Tran, and Professors Vanja Dukic and David Bortz had their publication, The Weak Form is Stronger Than You Think, highlighted on the front page in the October 2024 edition of SIAM News. The article describes their work in equation learning, parameter estimation, and coarse graining using weak form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (WSINDy) and weak form estimation of nonlinear dynamics (WENDy).

The article on SIAM can be found on their SIAM News page.

Congratulations to Daniel, April, and Professors Vanja and David for their outstanding work that awarded them this recognition!

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2024 Rudy Horne Recipient: Katerina Knyazeva

Anonymous — Sun, 18 Aug 2024 16:25:13 +0000

2024 Rudy Horne Recipient: Katerina Knyazeva Anonymous (not verified) Sun, 08/18/2024 - 10:25 Patrick McCreery

The Department of Applied Mathematics is thrilled to announce that Katerina Knyazeva has been awarded the 2024 Rudy Horne Memorial Fellowship. This prestigious fellowship was established to support students who, “through their presence in the department, contribute to the diversity of the Department of Applied Mathematics and of the campus, and more generally, of the community of mathematicians.”

The Rudy Horne Memorial Fellowship is a tribute to the values that Dr. Horne championed throughout his life and career. It aims to empower students who embody the spirit of inclusivity and the pursuit of excellence in applied mathematics. This fellowship recognizes individuals who are not only passionate about advancing their field but also deeply committed to fostering an inclusive and diverse community—one that flourishes through the contributions of people from all walks of life and a wide range of perspectives.

Katerina, or Kate as she is known to her peers, has demonstrated an unwavering commitment to these ideals. Her journey in mathematics has been marked by resilience and determination, overcoming numerous challenges to reach this point. She has consistently shown a strong dedication to promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) within the department, actively participating in initiatives that encourage underrepresented groups to pursue careers in mathematics. Kate’s efforts have already had a profound impact, inspiring her colleagues and contributing to a more welcoming and supportive environment within the department.

Associate Professor and Graduate Program Chair Zachary Kilpatrick is fully confident that Kate is the most deserving recipient of this award. When discussing this year’s candidates, Zack expressed his unequivocal support for Kate, stating, “It’s Kate by a mile. Not only has she cleared incredible hurdles to be here, but she has also committed firmly in the past and will continue to commit in the future to DEI. Kate should get the Rudy Horne.”

The Department of Applied Mathematics congratulates Kate on this well-deserved honor and is excited to see the positive influence she will continue to have on our community. We are confident that her presence in APPM will be instrumental in advancing our collective goals of diversity, equity, and inclusion, enriching both our department and the broader mathematical community.

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DARPA Innovation Fellow: Dr. Evan Gorman

Anonymous — Mon, 20 May 2024 21:31:22 +0000

DARPA Innovation Fellow: Dr. Evan Gorman Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 05/20/2024 - 15:31 Patrick McCreery

Dr. Evan Gorman (pictured on the left with Associate Professor Manuel Lladser), a recent Applied Mathematics Ph.D. graduate, has been awarded a Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Innovation Fellowship in Arlington, VA. The position, which begins in July, is a two-year fellowship that is aimed towards supporting early career scientists. DARPA notes that the Innovation Fellows “develop and manage” high-impact, high-risk portfolios to analyze technologies for the Department of Defense. The purpose of the fellowship is to “search for innovation across a broad range of scientific fields and technologies. Fellows are asked to probe existing paradigms, question technological barriers, and push the state of the art in science and technology.” DARPA-funded research via universities, industry leaders, and nonprofits work closely with the fellows in an effort to evaluate the investability of high-risk, high-reward projects. The Innovation Fellowship webpage from DARPA further discusses the fellowship and recipients.

Applied Mathematics congratulates Dr. Gorman on this exciting, ambitious new chapter after his successful thesis defense in the last year.

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SIAM Student Paper Prize Recipient: Dr. Heather Lynn Cihak

Anonymous — Mon, 20 May 2024 21:29:57 +0000

SIAM Student Paper Prize Recipient: Dr. Heather Lynn Cihak Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 05/20/2024 - 15:29 Patrick McCreery

Spring Applied Mathematics Ph.D. graduate Dr. Heather Lynn Cihak recently received the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Student Paper Prize. This prestigious award is given to authors of the best papers published in SIAM journals and includes a monetary prize, a certificate, and a special paper session at the SIAM Annual Meeting. According to SIAM, the award is presented annually to "the student author(s) of the most outstanding paper(s) accepted by SIAM journals within the three years preceding the nomination deadline. The award is based solely on the merit and content of the student's contribution to the submitted paper."

Dr. Cihak was nominated by Applied Mathematics Associate Professor Kilpatrick for their paper "Multiscale Motion and Deformation of Bumps in Stochastic Neural Fields with Dynamic Connectivity" (Multiscale Modeling & Simulation, 2024). Dr. Cihak was one of three recipients of the award and will be honored at the 2024 SIAM Annual Meeting in Spokane, Washington, from July 8-12, with a special session for the prize winners on July 12.

The Applied Mathematics Department congratulates Dr. Cihak on this monumental achievement and is excited to see what the future holds for the new APPM doctoral graduate.

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Keith Julien Memorial

Anonymous — Fri, 19 Apr 2024 19:33:25 +0000

Keith Julien Memorial Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 04/19/2024 - 13:33

Friday, April 19^th, 2024

In memory of Keith Julien: June 12^th, 1965 - April 14^th, 2024

Keith Julien Departmental Memorial recording (Passcode: r4rv$*.j)

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Sabina Adhikari Wins 2024 Dynamics Days Best Poster Award

Anonymous — Sat, 27 Jan 2024 07:00:00 +0000

Sabina Adhikari Wins 2024 Dynamics Days Best Poster Award Anonymous (not verified) Sat, 01/27/2024 - 00:00

In January, Applied Mathematics PhD student Sabina Adhikari won an award for the best poster at the 2024 Dynamics Days conference at UC Davis. Sabina’s poster is titled “Oscillatory and chaotic synchronization behavior in coupled oscillator systems with higher order interactions, community structure, and phase lags”.

The Dynamics Days webpage explains that the conference is an international and interdisciplinary effort “that focuses on chaos and nonlinear dynamics. We invite contributions related to tools and techniques of investigating dynamical systems models, and related applications. Topics may include, but are not limited to, mathematical theory, specific applications, and relevant experiments.”

This year’s conference highlighted areas including “fusion ignition, machine learning, AI, control, neuroscience, climate, ecology, evolution, and social sciences.”

The Department congratulates Sabina on this momentous accomplishment!

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Special Colloquium: 2024 Applied Mathematics Graduate Recruitment

Anonymous — Fri, 19 Jan 2024 16:23:25 +0000

Special Colloquium: 2024 Applied Mathematics Graduate Recruitment Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 01/19/2024 - 09:23

Join the 2024 Annual APPM Spring Poster Session

ECCS 201 + Kile and Judy Morgan Foyer

3:30 pm: Special Colloquium Speakers, Tomoko Matsuo and Juan Restrepo, begin talks

4:30 pm: Dinner service opens (cocktail style) and the Poster Session starts

6:30 pm: Closing

If you would like to present a poster, please fill-out the requested information on this form

To be reimbursed for a poster you print, please:

Only print your posters at the “Inkspot” at the UMC building.
Please give the Inkspot at least 3 days to fulfill your order, meaning you should send your request to eprint@colorado.edu latest anytime between Tuesday and Wednesday of the week of the Poster Session (if ordering on Thurs, please ask for a rushed order).
Please remember to add into your subject line, “APPM SPRING POSTER SESSION on Friday, March 15th, 2024: Speedtype 11043288.”
Please order size: 32 x 40 inches (if you really want a different size, that’s okay, but in that case, please bring your own board to the Inkspot to be printed).
Either horizontal or vertical posters are fine.

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Professor David Bortz Awarded the National Institutes of Health's Maximizing Investigators’ Research Award

Anonymous — Mon, 27 Nov 2023 22:56:00 +0000

Professor David Bortz Awarded the National Institutes of Health's Maximizing Investigators’ Research Award Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 11/27/2023 - 15:56

Last month, Applied Mathematics’s own Professor David Bortz received the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Maximizing Investigators’ Research Award (MIRA), which includes $1.88 million of support. MIRA, according to NIH, was established to better distribute NIGMS funding by “providing investigators with greater stability and flexibility, thereby enhancing scientific productivity and the chances for important breakthroughs.”

With this funding, Professor Bortz will use data-driven discovery methods, which use data to discover overarching model equations via machine learning, to tackle two biomedical projects. One project is to understand how cells communicate collective motion during wound healing. The second project is to use disease data to hypothesize disease infection rates, which helps predict necessary localized hospitalization resource distribution.

This achievement is published in the Colorado Arts and Sciences Magazine, which has more detail about the award itself and the projects Professor Bortz will use this award for.

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news

Harnessing Applied Mathematics and Bayesian Statistics to Protect Forests from Invasive Moths

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MSAM Spring 2026 Prospective Student Information Session

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The Weak Form is Stronger Than You Think

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2024 Rudy Horne Recipient: Katerina Knyazeva

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DARPA Innovation Fellow: Dr. Evan Gorman

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SIAM Student Paper Prize Recipient: Dr. Heather Lynn Cihak

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Keith Julien Memorial

Friday, April 19th, 2024

In memory of Keith Julien: June 12th, 1965 - April 14th, 2024

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Sabina Adhikari Wins 2024 Dynamics Days Best Poster Award

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Special Colloquium: 2024 Applied Mathematics Graduate Recruitment

ECCS 201 + Kile and Judy Morgan Foyer

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Professor David Bortz Awarded the National Institutes of Health's Maximizing Investigators’ Research Award

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Friday, April 19^th, 2024

In memory of Keith Julien: June 12^th, 1965 - April 14^th, 2024